Original Signal - Transmitting Finance

SeekingAlpha

Geithner!: Felix Salmon submits: Im pleased and surprised at the news that Tim Geithner will be the next Treasury secretary. Pleased because hes an insightful pragmatist whos more than qualified

Bond Expert: Friday Wrap: John Jansen submits: Prices of Treasury coupon securities reversed course today and surrendered some of the outsized gains achieved yesterday. Some participants suggest that the frantic, frenzied flow observed at the end of the day yesterday was the crescendo or

Berkshire Hathaway's Peculiar Volatility Numbers: Felix Salmon submits: I just got off the phone with someone whos been making good money shorting Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) stock in the past few weeks; he pointed out

H. J. Heinz Company F2Q08 (Qtr End 10/29/08) Earnings Call Transcript: H. J. Heinz Company (HNZ)F2Q09 Earnings CallComplete Story »

Washington's Foot Dragging on Automaker Bailout Disappoints Markets: Chris Krasowski submits: For the second time a needed bailout that was, wasnt. Yesterdays market session traded higher by mid-day as Traders were looking for US lawmakers to outline a plan to bail out the American automotive industry. Instead they

5-1/2 Ways to Make the Market Rally: Toro submits:I got thinking about what could cause the market to rise dramatically higher and reverse this extreme oversold condition. These include: Ban on short selling. Rumour has it that the government may ban the short selling of Citigroup (C)

Salesforce.com: Recession-Resistant, or Just Late to the Pain?: Larry Dignan (ZDNet) submits: On the surface, Salesforce.com’s third quarter was impressive. The company hit or exceeded its targets and noted that its “value proposition” was resonating among

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Blogging Stocks

In farms, as on Wall Street, prices drop: Filed under: Bad news, Economic data, Commodities, AgricultureFarmers whose families have been working the land for generations should be called in to advise new Wall Street traders every year. Because in farm

Financial Felons: Ken Lay: Filed under: Law, ScandalsThis post is part of a feature in which we wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial felons. See all 17.In my 20-year career as a financial writer, there

Stock picks and pans for troubled times: RIMM, ED, ISRG, GLW, LEA, SLB, GOOG ...: Filed under: Google (GOOG), Dell (DELL), Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Consolidated Edison (ED), Corning Inc (GLW), Research in Motion (RIMM), Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Does Obama symbolize the start of a new economic era?: Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Recession, Financial CrisisOne of the ironies of public officialdom is that those elected officials who deal with budgets and tax policy rarely fully grasp the economic

Did stocks rise 494 points on the Geithner bounce?: Filed under: Rumors, Politics, Financial CrisisThere is no way to know why stocks go up or down every day. Thats why I always find it somewhat silly when I see simple explanations for the movement in prices. The explanation offered

iPhone premium comes out of Apple stock: Filed under: Products and services, Apple Inc (AAPL), iPhone, SmartphonesIt wasnt that long ago that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) changed the way we think about phones. The exact date that Apples CEO, Steve

Is Berkshire Hathaway better than S&P Index?: Filed under: General Electric (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), Home Depot (HD), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), American Express (AXP), ConocoPhillips (COP), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Procter and Gamble (PG), Lowes Cos (LOW), Kraft FoodsA (KFT), Wells Fargo (WFC), S

Closing Bell: Torch Passing on a Friday Rally: Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Wal-Mart (WMT), Gap Inc (GPS), NIKE, IncB (NKE)Todays late rally tied to breaking news of President-elect Obamas naming Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary for the next administration, but there was also an end of week bargain-buying

Congress may have to approve a 'TARP 2,' economist says: Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), Politics, Recession, Financial CrisisWith credit markets remaining under stress, and with uncertainty growing regarding the status of megabank Citigroup (NYSE: C), the U.S. Congress may have to take more action to maintain financial system stability

Citigroup too big to fail: Filed under: Newsletters, Citigroup Inc. (C), Stocks to Buy2008 will be the year of too big to fail.That ubiquitous phrase has captured the attention of Wall Street, Main Street and Washington, but what

Annaly Capital (NLY): 'In the sweet spot for historic yields': Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, RecessionAnnaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) is in the sweet spot, says Steve Sjuggerud in Daily Wealth. He says, It borrows money at a low interest rate and invests it at a higher rate -- and

Yahoo! gets boost from wireless provider T-Mobile: Filed under: Good news, Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), AT and T (T)With Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) stock in the dumper, the CEO spot looking for a newcomer and musings about the future

Heinz rocks during Q2, but market doesn't care: Filed under: Earnings reports, Campbell Soup (CPB), Kellogg Co (K), Kraft FoodsA (KFT)Well, it looks like Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) put me and my earnings preview to shame. The company delivered a great second quarter. The company, whose colleagues include Kraft

Web browser makeovers and why S&P is bullish on Google: Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL)My view of the world is partly framed by my computer screen, so I found it nearly impossible to

Obama team mulls prepackaged bankruptcy for automakers: Filed under: General Motors (GM)Bloomberg reports that President Elect Barack Obamas transition team is taking a hard look at the possibility of a prepackaged bankruptcy for the Detroits troubled automakers.In a prepackaged filing, companies like General Motors (NYSE: GM) would

Financial Felons: Mark Whitacre: Filed under: Law, Scandals, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)This post is part of a feature in which he wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial felons. See all 17.How does the head of one of

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) cancer drug rejected: Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Options, Technical AnalysisBristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY - option chain) shares are falling today after the European Medicines Agency said it

If a stock's below $5, it's likely to dive: Filed under: Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Citigroup Inc. (C)Have any of your stocks recently tumbled below $5 a share? If you own Citigroup (NYSE: C) stock, then you know that it is among the former blue chips like

U.S. 10-year bond quickly becoming an electronic 'mattress' for savers: Filed under: Forecasts, Economic data, RecessionTo look at it optimistically, its a period of risk aversion. Economists, business executives, analysts, and certainly employees are hoping it doesnt become an era of risk aversion - - a longer period where businesses

The economy's so bad, people won't even buy books: Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Economic data, RecessionOne theory about a recession is that people will not buy cars or refrigerators, but they will buy beer, razors, soap and books. If you cant ride around in a new Chevy, at

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The Kirk Report

Another Horrible Week: A late day super snapper allowed us to finish on a positive note in what was another horrible week for the market. For the week, the S&P 500 lost -8.39%, Dow -5.31%, Nasdaq -8.47%, and the Russell 2000 -10.95%. As...

Q&A With Jeff Miller: It is with great pleasure to have Jeff Miller, from A Dash Of Insight, to participate in this months Q&A. Many of you know Jeff because Ive linked to many (if not the vast majority) of his blog posts. In...

Up In Flames: The latest and greatest fear - deflation The Federal Reserve put deflation back on the table Feds Bullard says U.S. deflation is an issue Fed must face Feds Lacker sees 2009 rebound Inflation is bad for stocks. The only thing...

November Options Expiration: Good morning. A bounce in overseas markets amid renewed expectations for additional rate cuts and other bailout speculation have set a positive tone this options expiration Friday. The newswires are relatively quiet and other than earnings from Dell, a board...

Another Leg Lower: While the market attempted to bounce and hold above yesterdays close, sellers again swamped the tape in the afternoon forcing a close at the lows. In fact, today the S&P 500 plunged to its lowest level in 11 years! I...

More Volatility Ahead: Good morning. The sellers remain in charge following weakness in overseas markets and initial jobless claims that came in higher than expected. Other than chatter of investments in General Electric by sovereign wealth funds and increase stake by Saudi Prince...

Bottom Fishing: Fedspeak! Paulson locks horns with lawmakers over rescue fund The risk of Bernankes cash injections It isn’t a TARP without troubled assets to cover CPI + PPI = Deflation Years defaults soar past a quarter-trillion S&P 500s Q3 earnings fall...

More Data To Chew On: Good morning. Stock futures indicate a lower open today as U.S. CEOs urge at least $300 billion in stimulus and concerns continue that no bailout of the auto manufacturers will doom the economy. Markets overseas were again under pressure. Turning...

Earnings, TARP, & The Economy: Good morning. Premarket futures, once under pressure due to weakness in overseas markets, have turned around and are currently suggesting a positive open. Along with the latest read on retail sales and more earnings reports from companies like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ),...

Market Imbroglio: Obama says he will do whatever it takes on economy Obama & Pelosi may throw as much as half a trillion dollars worth of stimulus at the economy Key questions from the G-20 Summit The 6 unknowns that are roiling...

Heartbreakers: Last Valentines Day we put together our annual list of heartbreakers - i.e. stocks that members thought would give investors the most heartbreak over the next year. Within now just three months left to go, the heartbearkers are collectively down...

Talking Points: Good morning. Premarket futures are pointing to a weak start as the market expresses its disappointment for world leaders at the G-20 meeting. Other than more talk and promises, nothing new was achieved. Other talking points this morning include auto-parts...

Out Golfing Today: Ill be away from the trading desk today to play golf. Feel free to browse the archives in my absence. See you on Monday!

The Big Bad Bear Trap: You have to love it when the market plays according to script. After busting through recent supports & lows, the bear trap was sprung and we rallied back hard for big gains across the board on heavy volume. In fact,...

Where's My Bailout?: A change of plans! Hanks credibility takes another hit with rescue-plan reversal Expanding the $700 Billion Bailout…to $1 Trillion Confusion as Tarp fails to ease clogged markets Treasury considers private role in TARP Want some TARP cash? Sign here! Lobbyists...

Need I Say More?

Jobless Claims, Foreclosures, & More: Good morning. Along with volatile trading action overseas, premarket futures here have been the same although currently in negative territory following more bad news on the economy. In the latest read, jobless claims rose much higher than expected, foreclosures are...

Mailbag: Thank you for all of the wonderful questions! I had my choice of topics to cover and Ill cover the following in this edition: A Three-Step Simple Moving Average Screen Market Perspectives Beyond The Short-Term Evaluating ETFs From Various Points...

Consumer Confidence Remains Low: Good morning. Premarket futures are under pressure this morning and point to a weak start. Among the notable headlines include Best Buy who reported that its same-store sales fell 7.6% in October amid rapid, seismic changes in consumer behavior have...

Link Hopping: Strains mount on bailout plans US bank rescue may slow day of reckoning Amid all the noise of the markets, it is the relative silence of the corporate-bond market that may be most troubling Uncle Sams credit line running out?...

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Footnoted.org

Is Congress footnoted’s new competition?: Earlier this week, we saw various members of Congress outraged because the three top executives of GM (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler took corporate jets to beg for $25 billion in money. What’s next, you might ask, will Congressmen (and

Odds and ends…: Lots of stuff going on today, so rather than a regular post, here’s some things worth paying attention to:House agriculture hearing (which I’m listening in on right now) on credit default swaps. This is a follow-up to last month’s hearing.

Fortress worries about Obama’s plans and other new rules…: Last Thursday, we had the spectacle of five top hedge fund managers testifying on Capitol Hill. Several Congressmen honed in on the current tax code which allows hedge fund partners (and other partnerships) to be taxed at a lower rate

$55K for a bailout-mobile?: There’s been endless stories written about executive compensation for banks participating in Treasury’s Capital Purchase Program. As the rules clearly spell out, compensation for the five named executives is capped at $500K and there’s additional restrictions on so-called golden parachutes.

Breaking: SEC charges Mark Cuban: Just received a press release from the SEC that it has charged internet entrepreneur Mark Cuban, 50, with insider trading. The release is here on the SEC’s site and the 9 page complaint (pdf) charges Cuban with insider trading —

Lots of drama at Blockbuster…: Over the past 23 years, Blockbuster, Inc. (BBI) has made a lot of money by renting and selling Hollywood dramas. But the financial drama that the company is involved in now is surely one that its executives, employees and investors

Some banks are just saying no to bailout money…: The deadline for banks to apply for the Treasury Department’s Capital Purchase Program is just hours away and as we’ve footnoted before, banks have been busily filing both their applications with Treasury and 8Ks with the SEC announcing their applications

Some banks are just saying no to bailout money…: The deadline for banks to apply for the Treasury Department’s Capital Purchase Program is just hours away and as we’ve footnoted before, banks have been busily filing both their applications with Treasury and 8Ks with the SEC announcing their applications

Live blogging hedge fund hearing!: Today’s main event — the fifth in a series of hearings examining the market meltdown — is likely to be a lively hearing featuring five top hedge fund managers and a group of professors, among them former SEC Chairman David

A holiday gift from the government…: One of the pieces of the 451-page EESA legislation that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention is the extension of tax credits for R&D that had expired at the end of 2007. Indeed, even the Wikepedia description of the legislation makes

GM’s incredibly sobering 10-Q…: Late yesterday, after a day of headlines like this one, General Motors (GM) filed an incredibly sober 10Q. Weighing in at 337 pages, GM seems to be worried that folks might not get through the whole thing. So they started

On Circuit City’s bankruptcy filing…: This morning’s news that Circuit City (CC) was filing for bankruptcy protection prompted us to go back to something we had footnoted in late August: the employment contract with newly hired Vice Chairman James Marcum. A month later, on Sept.

Companies assess (or at least guess) impact of new Obama Administration…: Even before Tuesday’s election results, companies began contemplating what the change in Administration would mean for them. But now that the results have come in (for the most part, anyway, since there’s still 9 House and Senate seats in limbo),

Voters kick payday lenders to the curb in Ohio, Arizona…: There’s obviously many election stories still coming out from Tuesday’s results, but one that I’ve been following has been ballot measures in Arizona and Ohio designed to limit how much interest payday lenders can charge. In Ohio, voters approved Issue

Who should run the SEC in an Obama administration?: It didn’t take long after last night’s incredibly moving celebration in Chicago’s Grant Park when Senator Barack Obama became President-Elect Obama for attention to turn to key jobs in an Obama Administration. Already, there’s lots of talk about Rep. Rahm

Voting: today and everyday!: One of the great things about living in a democracy is that you get to vote — and not just today at the polls, though of course you should do that. You also get to vote with your pocketbook —

On the politics of subprime and sex party houses….: I’ve been down in Bradenton, Florida the past few days where I started my career as a journalist. After spending the weekend walking door to door to get out the vote for Barack Obama, I’m now turning my attention to

Live blogging hedge fund hearing!: Today’s main event — the fifth in a series of hearings examining the market meltdown — is likely to be a lively hearing featuring five top hedge fund managers and a group of professors, among them former SEC Chairman David

A holiday gift from the government…: One of the pieces of the 451-page EESA legislation that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention is the extension of tax credits for R&D that had expired at the end of 2007. Indeed, even the Wikepedia description of the legislation makes

GM’s incredibly sobering 10-Q…: Late yesterday, after a day of headlines like this one, General Motors (GM) filed an incredibly sober 10Q. Weighing in at 337 pages, GM seems to be worried that folks might not get through the whole thing. So they started

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TraderFeed

Three Market Relationships

Quick Takes for a Bear Market Friday: * Finding an Analogue - People have compared the current market to other bear markets, including 1987, 1974, and even the markets of the 1930s. I find it interesting that many of those comparisons implicitly equate the current year with

New Lows, New Opportunities: Themes for Thursday

Three Common Trading Mistakes: Trading is a lot like dating: often you have to make enough mistakes and suffer the consequences when you dont have much on the line before you start making good decisions when youre playing for keeps. Here are some of

High Yield, Low Performance and Other Market Ideas: * Unyielding Yield Play - One rule thats held consistently in the recent market is that reaching for yield has cost investors in performance. I took a look at the FINRA data and the numbers were eye-opening. Here are the

Under Pressure: Insurance Stocks and Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities

How Volatile Is This Stock Market?: I went to the cash S&P 500 Index from 2003 through June of 2007 and calculated that the median weekly high-low price range was 2.09% (mean 2.32%). I then looked at the *daily* high-low range for $SPX from July, 2007

Stress and Performance in Trading: An excellent review of research by Mark Staal, conducted for NASA, offers fascinating windows on the variety of ways that stress can affect human performance. Examining hundreds of research studies, the author finds that stress interferes with attention, memory, decision

The Vote of No Confidence Among Financial Stocks

Indicator Update for November 17th

Trending Markets and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): Brian Shannon has nicely described how the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) serves as an institutional measure of value for the

Cumulative New Highs/Lows and Stock Market Trends

Sector Update for November 15th: Last weeks sector update found that the eight S&P 500 sectors that I follow had turned bearish in their short-term trending. Heres how were looking at the end of this past week, based upon the Technical Strength measure. MATERIALS: -320INDUSTRIAL:

Conflict and Creativity in Trading Performance: As part of elaborating a cognitive perspective on trader performance, I recently took a look at the role of creativity in trading. From this vantage point, idea generation can be described as a two-part process of observation and analysis followed

The Role of Creativity in Trading: In my last post, I sketched preliminary ideas regarding a cognitive theory of trading performance. One important implication of such a theory is that declines in the performance of traders and portfolio managers may not simply reflect discipline problems in

Toward a Cognitive Theory of Trader Performance: We tend to think of trading ideas and positions in terms of their objective characteristics: the market traded, the location of the trade, its direction, the size of the position, the target, etc. This can have the result of making

Tracking The Recent Stock Market Weakness: As the helpful chart from Decision Point illustrates, were testing the October lows in the NYSE Composite Index (top pane),

Self-Coaching and The Sound Training of Traders: As we saw in the recent post, sustaining sound decision making during the heat of battle can be a major challenge for traders. Many traders try to correct that situation by writing in journals or simply by vowing to do

Becoming Your Own Trading Coach Blog: Most readers are probably aware that I started a new blog in support of the Trading Coach book that will be coming out in the first quarter of 2009. Over time Ill be developing the new blog into a resource

Staying Cool in the Heat of the Battle: A Key Skill for Active Traders: So often in my meetings with active (intraday) traders, I hear the phrase in the heat of the battle. Usually what follows that phrase is a description of some trading mistake: trading too aggressively, ignoring risk guidelines, deviating from planned

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Random Roger's Big Picture

WWLD?: Here is the quote from Lou Rukeyser from the 1987 crash as per USA Today.Lets start with whats really important tonight,

Ludacris!: I was on CNBC on Monday talking about whether or not insider buying was important and whether it made sense to

Holy Crud!: The puke down continued yesterday. The sold them with both hands, well they have been selling them with both hands for ages now havent they.I read one quick snippet about JP Morgan and Bank America going to mid 90s levels.

Headed To Hilo: We are flying to Hilo today, regular blogging to resume tomorrow. Taking a page from Barry maybe we can get a

Throwing In The Towel: Not me but maybe the market. Yesterdays decline felt like the market just gave up, it grew weary of fighting. No way to substantiate that of course, just a feeling I had in seeing it unfold. Early in the day

Closing Bell: Im scheduled 20 minutes after the close for a segment on whether insider buying is a relevant predictor for future market

Something Will Have To Give: Yesterdays post about taking 4% of principal as retirement income from the portfolio elicited a couple of opposing views which makes

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Ticker Sense

November 17th Blogger Sentiment Poll: The blogging world remains bullish for the week. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (-) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crossing

Bear Market Strategy: Distributed to Mini-Institutional subscribers on Friday, Birinyi Associates newest publication is a 180 page analysis of every bear market from the last fifty years. Each bear cycle is broken down into its causes, catalysts and final resolution. The first 20

November 10th Blogger Sentiment Poll: Bloggers continue their bullish positions this week. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (-) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crowder Blog (+) Crossing

November 3rd Blogger Sentiment Poll: Bloggers begin the month maintaining the bullish sentiment. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crowder Blog

Volkswagen: The Biggest Company in the World: Yes, thats right, at one point early this morning EST Volkswagen AG was up 100% and surpassed Exxon-Mobil as the largest company in the world. The move has been blamed on a short squeeze, but could you really imagine XOM

October 27th Blogger Sentiment Poll: There are still more bulls than bears this week. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+)

Re-Read "the next CRASH": the next CRASH was written and distributed to Birinyi Associates clients in August of 2007. In it Mr. Birinyi questioned the rationale behind structural changes such

October 20th Blogger Sentiment Poll: This weeks poll continues the overwhelming bullishness.Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street

S&P 500 Long Term P/E Ratio: Warren Buffets encouraging op-ed in the New York Times today may have inspired some buyers this morning, but after a world-wide credit crisis, weakening home prices, and the crumbling of several of the worlds most prestigious financial institutions, how much

New Sector Leaders Emerging?: After Mondays huge gain there were some sectors that had follow through rallies yesterday, and some that did not. The chart below highlights the ten S&P 500 sectors and their gains both on Monday and on Tuesday. As shown, the

S&P 500: Still OVERSOLD!: Even though the market rallied 11% yesterday, the S&P 500 is still oversold! As shown below the S&P remains more than two standard deviations below its 50-day moving average.

October 13th Blogger Sentiment Poll: As a result of technical troubles we were forced to re-poll our bloggers yesterday during the trading day. Yesterdays near 1000 point gain has all the bears running for cover. Even Roger Nusbaum (Big Picture) is a bull, which I

November 17th Blogger Sentiment Poll: The blogging world remains bullish for the week. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (-) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crossing

Bear Market Strategy: Distributed to Mini-Institutional subscribers on Friday, Birinyi Associates newest publication is a 180 page analysis of every bear market from the last fifty years. Each bear cycle is broken down into its causes, catalysts and final resolution. The first 20

November 10th Blogger Sentiment Poll: Bloggers continue their bullish positions this week. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (-) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crowder Blog (+) Crossing

November 3rd Blogger Sentiment Poll: Bloggers begin the month maintaining the bullish sentiment. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crowder Blog

Volkswagen: The Biggest Company in the World: Yes, thats right, at one point early this morning EST Volkswagen AG was up 100% and surpassed Exxon-Mobil as the largest company in the world. The move has been blamed on a short squeeze, but could you really imagine XOM

October 27th Blogger Sentiment Poll: There are still more bulls than bears this week. Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+)

Re-Read "the next CRASH": the next CRASH was written and distributed to Birinyi Associates clients in August of 2007. In it Mr. Birinyi questioned the rationale behind structural changes such

October 20th Blogger Sentiment Poll: This weeks poll continues the overwhelming bullishness.Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants:24/7 Wall St. (N) Ahead of the Ticker (+) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street

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Gannon On Investing

On a Return to Normalcy: It might not feel like it, but yesterday marked the Dow’s return to normal. Normal valuations that is. A little under two years ago (December 2006), I wrote a series of posts on normalized P/E ratios. In my most important

On Ben Graham, Bank Stocks, and Tom Brown: I wrote a response to Jason Zweig’s column on Ben Graham and bank stocks. Now, Tom Brown of Bankstocks.com has done the same. I have to admit, Tom’s article is better than mine. Both take Zweig to task for his

Festival of Stocks #99: Welcome to the ninety-ninth Festival of Stocks. The Festival of Stocks is a weekly blog carnival dedicated to highlighting the best recent posts on stock market related topics. I am proud to present this weeks best entries to the Festival

On a Starbucks Shuttered: They say you don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone.I don’t know who they are; but I know of what they speak.I recently lost a coffee place (not a Starbucks). It was a traumatic experience.Last year, my eye doctor

On Ben Graham and Bank Stocks: Jason Zweig writes the Intelligent Investor column for The Wall Street Journal. I’m sorry to say this week’s column is especially unintelligent. When asked whether Graham would be buying financial stocks today, Zweig says no, and gives the following reason:

Book Review: The Ten Commandments for Business Failure: Review by Geoff Gannon

Upcoming Festival of Stocks: Attention Investment Bloggers:I’m hosting this week’s Festival of Stocks (on Monday).Please send me your best post of the last week.Thank you.

Security Analysis: Introduction (Part 1): The introduction to Security Analysis is a treasure trove of Grahamian thought. It is impossible to fully plumb the depths of this Grahamian gold mine in a single post. Therefore, I have separated my comments into two posts. This post

On Liquid Courage: There are two recent pieces on morality and credit worth reading. One is written by David Brooks; the other by Jim Grant.Brooks piece is good; Grant’s is better. Brooks takes the matter as far as he can. He sees the

20 Questions for Jeff of Circle of Competence: Jeff, author of Circle of Competence, is a young and learning investor not yet out of college. He derives his investing framework from Superinvestors ranging from Ben Graham and John Maynard Keynes to Joel Greenblatt and Eddie Lampert. Jeff believes

Blogger Roundtable: July 2008: Note: My continuing weekly commentary on Benjamin Graham’s Security Analysis is being bumped for this roundtable; the commentary will appear here tomorrow morning. Sorry for the inconvenience.This is a new format for Gannon On Investing – a pseudo-roundtable, where the

Security Analysis: First and Second Preface: This book is intended for all those who have a serious interest in security values. It is not addressed to the complete novice, however, for it presupposes some acquaintance with the terminology and the simpler concepts of finance. The scope

Second Largest Bank Failure in U.S. History: Feds Seize IndyMac: Its no longer a rumor; its now news. IndyMac (IMB) has failed.From Reuters:The FDIC said the estimated cost of the California-based banks failure to its insurance fund is between $4 billion and $8 billion. The regulator said it will operate

Whitney Tilson is Short Hanesbrands: According to this post at Seeking Alpha, Whitney Tilson is short Hanesbrands (HBI). I mentioned Hanes (which was then my favorite stock) during a roundtable discussion on October 20, 2006:However, there are many situations (and here is usually where you

Security Analysis: Homework for Monday, July 14th, 2008: GetSecurity Analysis: The Classic 1940 EditionThe Interpretation of Financial StatementsReadSecurity Analysis: Preface to the Second Edition, Preface to

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Value Discipline

Ben Graham meets the Exchange Trade Note part II: As discussed in the previous post, Nuveen has created an interesting Benjamin Graham based index. Here is a look at the Graham Small Cap Index constituents for the Benjamin Graham Small Cap Value ELEMENTS portfolio:A O Smith CorpAdministaff IncAdtran IncAlon

Ben Graham meets the Exchange Traded Note: Exchange traded notes (ETN) are a fairly new investment product that share some characteristics of exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. They are simply direct debt obligations issued by a bank or investment firm rather than an interest in a pool of

Book Review-"Even Buffett Isn't Perfect": I am a complete sucker for investment books. My wife accuses me of owning several thousand books that have essentially the same title, usually some variant of Value Investing, valuation, or intrinsic value, or securities analysis. Of course, I have

John Templeton- The Triumph of Optimism: Sir John Templeton passed away yesterday. He died, much as he spent his life, peacefully.Geoff Gannon (and it is great to have him back in the blogosphere) has an extensive list of articles outlining Templetons life as well as a

An Interesting Screen-Deteriorating Operating Margins and Increasing Capital Intensity: As one would expect, deterioration in operating margins will occur in economic slowdowns. Marginal competitors frequently will try to clear inventories at ever lower margins in order to generate cash flow. I am particularly interested concerned if a company exhibits

Recurring Revenues and Financial Services- The Competitive Moat of Fiserv: In our last post, we discussed the notion of recurring revenues as it pertains to companies in the industrial sector. The genesis of this idea was a reaction to the prevailing wisdom of many investment strategists to find recurring revenue

Recurring Revenues and Industrials: Economic uncertainty generally steers investors toward steady eddy businesses such as foods, consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. But what investors should be seeking is recurring revenues, predictable and stable revenues with a high degree of certainty.Recurring revenues are highly desirable

A Lemons Market- Information Asymmetry and Bear Stearns: Asymmetric information gets to the root of todays market problem in Bear Stearns. George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and Joseph Stiglitz won the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics for their work in this area.Akerlof, who wrote the earliest paper in this

Beliefs, Perceptions and Reality-Semiconductor Capital Equipment: Growth has a seductive charm. There is a widespread belief that momentum drives growth and that a succession of knocking down challenges and consequent victories is what characterizes a successful business. But sustained growth is seldom straightforward. Sustained growth frequently

Renaissance and Revival: It has been an extraordinarily long time since I last published thoughts here for which I truly apologize. Needless to say, capital markets have been challenging and clients prefer a higher level of care and attention when markets are rocky.

Happy Thanksgiving!!: Happy Thanksgiving wishes to our American readers! Certainly, no matter what the circumstances that life may bring you, there is always much for which to be thankful.It has been said that the hardest arithmetic to master is that which enables

Fear Brings Opportunity and Digging for Value: Whitney Tilson is the founder and Managing Partner of T2 Partners, a hedge fund, as well as a mutual fund operation. He has co-founded a terrific newletter and established a semi-annual investment conference, Value Investing Congress, where he features a

Where Have All the Deals Gone? and Star Wars Thinking: There is an interesting dichotomy that exists in capital markets. Not so many months ago, pre-August, there was a widespread perception that we were running out of stocks. Private equity interests were gobbling up anything that had a reasonably steady

IT Services and Technology: Cisco Systems (CSCO)s results of last night have cratered a lot of tech stocks today, particularly hardware. IBM. EMC, Network Appliance (NTAP) have all had a good drubbing in todays marketplace.Though the sector has exhibited standout performance relative to most

Some Thoughts on Formulaic Investing: As some of you know, I am an occasional contributor to Shai Dardashtis Reflections on Value Investing. I think you will be impressed with the quality of serious contributors to the investment thinking that characterizes this blog. I commend it

Don't Blame the Cow- Blame the Cowboy: Interesting goings on in the financials. UBS got the ball rolling (and a few heads) with the announcement of a write down of SFr 4 billion resulting in a forthcoming loss for the third quarter. Credit Suisse (CS) also taking

The Sub-Prime Crisis and the Hedge Fund Collapse: Here as we approach the 20th anniversary of the crash of October 19th, 1987, the academic world is starting to read the entrails of the hedge fund crash of 2007 as it relates to the sub-prime crisis.In August, the financial

Is Government Involvement in Energy Worth the Investment Risk?: Interesting how badly politicians can screw up supply-demand imbalances. As a Canadian who endured Canadas National Energy Policy of the early 1980s, it worries me to see the proposed royalty changes that the Alberta government panel has recommended. Our American

Nordson and High Quality Capital Goods Companies: Todays Barrons highlights Nordson Corporation (NDSN) as an attractive capital goods company. I agree that this is a wonderful business at a fairly attractive price.The article describes the companys global positioning with some 70% of its sales from overseas, yet

Alan Greenspan's View of Housing: Alan Greenspan was interviewed by the Financial Times in todays paper. Not surprisingly, he indicated that the decline in house prices is going to be larger than most people realize. However, he also warned that the Fed should be careful

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NO DooDahs!

Automotive Annoyances: A few things that bothered me yesterday about the news coverage of the pending bailout for domestic auto(loan)makers.“GM makes cars nobody wants” Vs. “GM sold __ million cars in the U.S. in the last __ years”“Nobody wants” is an exaggeration,

Buy-A-Bank Bailouts: The Hartford (HIG), a.k.a. “The Neutered Stag,” has pulled a fast one! They bought a bank, just in order to get bailed out.In some bizarre way, this multi-national, multi-billion-dollar insurer can buy some tiny, eleven-branch-having, single state bank off of

Busy With Other Projects, Back Again Soon: No description.

Updates at The Rempel Report: Still no Timing signalValue Portfolio updatePersonal returns for October 2008

Piece of the Rock Randomosity: Get it, baby! Get a piece of the rock! Prudential Financial (PRU) reported yesterday. Lots of ways to put lipstick on this pig, and turn a loss per share into a “

The Solution To Inflation: Some “PG-13″ language. Headphones? Direct link.

The Credit Crunch Myth: I think this paper did a creditable job of debunking four so-called “facts” about the credit crunch. “Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008″ (PDF). Hat tip to Mises blog.

ModernGraham.com

Valuation: NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS): Company Profile: NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS) (obtained via Yahoo Finance)NCI Building Systems, Inc. manufactures and markets metal products for the nonresidential construction industry in North America. The company’s Metal Coil Coating segment consists of cleaning, treating, and painting various

Valuation: Olin Corporation (OLN): Company Profile: Olin Corporation (OLN) (obtained via Yahoo Finance)Olin Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of chlor alkali products to commercial and industrial markets in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Chlor Alkali Products and

Valuation: EnPro Industries, Inc. (NPO): Company Review: EnPro Industries, Inc. (NPO) Company Profile: EnPro Industries, Inc. (obtained via Yahoo Finance) EnPro Industries, Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of engineered industrial products. It operates through three segments: Sealing Products, Engineered Products, and

Valuation: Sykes Enterprises (SYKE): Company Profile: Sykes Enterprises (SYKE) (obtained via Yahoo Finance)Sykes Enterprises, Incorporated provides outsourced customer contact management solutions and services in the business process outsourcing arena. Its solutions include customer assistance, healthcare and roadside assistance, technical support, and product sales. The

ModernGraham Value Investing Search Engine: We have just created the ModernGraham Value Investing Search Engine, powered by Google Search. Using this search engine, you can search through a number of websites that are focused on value investing. We believe this will be a very useful

Valuation: Graham Corporation (GHM): Company Profile: Graham Corporation (GHM) (obtained via Yahoo Finance)Graham Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells vacuum and heat transfer equipment worldwide. Its products include steam jet ejector vacuum systems; surface condensers for steam turbines; vacuum pumps and compressors; various types of

DJIA Analysis & Portfolios - 8-12-08: Each Tuesday, we will be posting an analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In this analysis, we will show all components which pass our tests for the defensive and/or enterprising investor, our current valuation, and the previous day’s

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Stock Market Beat

Capacity Utilization: Total Industry: St. Louis Fed: Series: TCU, Capacity Utilization: Total Industry

Personal Income and Outlays: Econoday Report: Personal Income and Outlays 31, 2008Personal income in September 2008 rose 0.2% from August. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell 0.4% and nominal PCE fell 0.3%. Real disposable personal income (DPI) rose 0.1% and nominal DPI increased 0.2%. The

Retail Sales: Economic Indicators.gov

Interest Rate Spreads: St. Louis Fed: Series: WBAA, Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Series: WGS10YR, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity RateAccording to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, Baa corporate bonds are yielding 4.56% more than 10-year Treasuries. The chart below shows

Consumer Price Index: 12-Month Percent Change in Consumer Price Index Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Capacity Utilization: Total Industry: No description.

Total Capacity Utilization: No description.

Corporate Profits After Tax: No description.

Risk Premia: No description.

Trucking Index Declines: According to the American Trucking Associations: The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.3 percent in July, marking the first month-to-month drop since April. The seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled 116.2 (2000 = 100) in

Order Cancellations: Econoday has an article out today showing the relationships between the durable goods accounts: shipments, new orders, backlog and inventory. They note that there are now some signs of order cancellations, which demonstrates that the apparent strength shown by strong

Personal Income and Outlays: Econoday Report: Personal Income and Outlays 31, 2008Personal income in September 2008 rose 0.2% from August. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell 0.4% and nominal PCE fell 0.3%. Real disposable personal income (DPI) rose 0.1% and nominal DPI increased 0.2%. The

Retail Sales: Economic Indicators.gov

Interest Rate Spreads: St. Louis Fed: Series: WBAA, Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Series: WGS10YR, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity RateAccording to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, Baa corporate bonds are yielding 4.56% more than 10-year Treasuries. The chart below shows

Consumer Price Index: 12-Month Percent Change in Consumer Price Index Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Capacity Utilization: Total Industry: No description.

Total Capacity Utilization: No description.

Corporate Profits After Tax: No description.

Risk Premia: No description.

Trucking Index Declines: According to the American Trucking Associations: The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.3 percent in July, marking the first month-to-month drop since April. The seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled 116.2 (2000 = 100) in

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Berkshire Ruminations

Merger Arbitrage Mania!: I haven’t heard a lot of discussion about this, so I thought I would put my thoughts down on this blog, because to me the phenomenon is pretty obvious. There is some serious value out there right now, and for

Victory for Wooden Arrow Advocates: It was a glorious evening yesterday when the U.S. Senate passed its version of H.R. 1424, the package of legislation representing Congress’ half-hearted attempt to stabilize the economy. It was glorious for all those of us who have striven so

PS - Where's the hedge funds' bailout?: As the day has worn on, I am getting convinced this is political because here is what Ive been told. Hedge funds are evil. Short sellers are evil. Even the SEC is evil - and that was before it decided

Oh, so now it's the shorts' fault?: Nothing surprises me these days. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t concern me. This short selling ban is, without question, the scariest thing to come out of the whole mess.And it is not that I don’t have perspective. The meltdown

Thoughts on Anheuser Busch and InBev: I have always had warm feelings towards Anheuser Busch. Growing up in the St. Louis area I couldn’t help it – afternoons at Grant’s Farm, countless Cardinal games at Busch Stadium and the occasional brewery tour. AB is all around

USA Today: There was a good article recently in USA Today about Warren Buffett that quotes me, among others. http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-06-04-warren-buffett_N.htm

RBP Investing: As some readers may know, I recently started writing a couple of new blogs. One is called RBP Investing. RBP stands for Required Business Performance and was developed by a company in New York called Transparent Value. RBP is a

Fox Business Network Buffett Special: I received an email from a representative of Fox Business Network telling me about the special they are doing at the meeting this weekend. I agreed to publicize it for them, but have to wonder why Liz Claman didnt request

Wrigley Deal and the Annual Meeting: I have been hesitant to jump to many conclusions about the Wrigley deal because I think there are still a lot of unanswered questions about Berkshires involvement in it. Hopefully many of the details will be explained this weekend at

Another Hilarious Screen Capture: Could someone tell me how this headline ended up on Google Finance?

To Whom it May Concern:: This blog is not dead. I am just taking a break. Lots of personal stuff going on, including the recent birth of my first son. I had hoped to work out a combination of names such that his initials would

Buffett Videoconference at MU on Friday: I thought I might help publicize the University of Missouri Trulaske College of Business 2008 Forum on Emerging Issues & Trends in Real Estate. That is mouthful. What it means is that on Friday as part of a symposium on

A few thoughts on the Bear Stearns situation: The first lesson that came to my mind when I heard about this debacle was straight from Buffett: Don’t buy what you can’t understand. Was Bear a simple and understandable business? Of course not. Their investments were so complex that

Empirical Finance Research Blog: If you are interested in financial research you may want to check out a new project I am starting with a friend of mine who is a PhD student at the University of Chicago. It is called Empirical Finance Research:http://empiricalfinanceresearch.blogspot.com/Our

Bullish on TMA: I captured the following screenshot from Yahoo Finance shortly after the market closed today:This was kind of surprising to me given the performance of

Thoughts on the 2007 Chairman's Letter: As usual, Mr. Buffett touches on both classic and contemporary issues in this year’s letter. Two stand out to me as worth quickly addressing.The classic issue most interesting to me is his discussion of See’s Candies (see page 7). It

Warren Buffett Exposure: It sure seems Mr. Buffett is more willing than ever to appear publicly. Next week he will be on CNBC discussing the new letter to shareholders. Here is a link to details on that:http://www.cnbc.com/id/23359277On March 14 (which is coincidentally my

Bill Belichick and Employee Stock Options: Here is another sports-related post…To me, the biggest justice of the Patriots’ losing of the Super Bowl was not that Tom Brady had snickered with overconfidence at Plaxico Burress’ ultimately accurate prediction or even that Bill Belichick had stormed off

Now THIS is cool.: Have you heard about this? Cleveland Indians minor league pitching prospect Randy Newsom is securitizing himself by selling off 4% of any future major league earnings he may realize. For $20 you can buy one share which entitles you (the

Finally, a post about the economy.: I don’t claim to be a macroeconomist, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt. And I am certainly not a market prognosticator, so please don’t interpret what I say as a prediction for the direction

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Investment Ideas

Permanent Shutdown: Id like to announce my permanent hiatus from the blogging scene. Ive utilized the blog to leverage my knowledge and show my passion for the business, which has served me well, as Ive learned from this experience a great deal

The Monday Edition- Fixed Income Strategy For This Week & Speculative Trade (ENCY): Ive finally got some spare time, so thought Id share my thoughts on one wild week were going to have.The price action in the US 10-year Treasury yields last week was extremely bearish as the bull channel in place since

Buy MNT (Short-Term Trade): Rationale: 1) With 16% of its float sold short, or 6,537,400 million shares, with 4.3 days to cover and average daily trading volume (3m) of 888K, it will take 7.36 days to cover the entire position.2) On a fundamental level

Stamp duty China impacts 1991-2005: Yes, I know Im on a hiatus, but that doesnt mean I cant take a minute out to re-print something useful I received in the e-mail from someone who would rather not be named.Oct. 1991 - The Stamp Duty was

Featured In Globe & Mail: It is my first time in the Globe & Mail, which is Canadas NYT, and first time in print (no online version). Im thankful to God, GM and everybody else who takes time to come here. Ill sure miss you

Blogging Hiatus: Internship Time: For this summer, I had some good offers, thanks to God, from Barclays (Dubai), UBS (LA) but I chose a firm in the HF industry.I posted their name and a few clients, but have been advised by a friend to

Hedging w/ Futures & Options: Bullish, Bearish & Neutral Strategies: As you know, were in the third year of the presidential cycle, which on a historical basis has been quite bullish for the markets.The DJIA has risen 24 times and fallen 5 times in the 29 third calendar year of

Win A Copy Of Bank Asset & Liability Management: Im delighted to announce that institutional readers (please e-mail me from your corporate e-mail) can win a copy of Bank Asset & Liability Management by Moorad Choudhry (Head of Treasury at KBC Financial Products, derivatives arm of KBC Bank).BALM is

Closed-End Funds To Consider- UTF, SRO, ESD: Ive compiled a list of closed-end funds selling at a discount that you should consider. Besides looking for funds selling below NAV, I looked for companies which have are rated at least 4/5 from Morningstar, have a good 3 year

Is It Time To Buy Gold? (Updated 2 pm): Theres a ratio I like to look at for timing buy/sell decisions in Gold. This ratio, Gold/Oil, helps to identify overbought and oversold opportunities for gold. The chart below shows buying gold when the ratio is 8-10 usually pays of

Thoughts On UK- Policy, Deficits & More: Gordon Brown eagerly awaits June 27th, when Tony Blair will step down as Prime Minister. The initial policy impact of a change in leadership will likely be minimal, as the Chancellor has been the architect of the administration’s economic and

The Monday Edition- Latin America Outlook- Part 1: Brazil & Argentina: Current account surpluses, debt reduction, commodity prices and steady capital remittances remain drivers of exchange rate stability, attracting yield-hungry and aggressive growth investors.The key countries in Latin America have opted to implement alternative exchange rate regimes, but the majorty have

Charity Is Important: Three You Can Donate To Right Now!: It is important that you give back. While weve all been told that, truthfully how many of us actually act on that? There are hundreds of charities, no thousands, of them out there trying to make a difference one way

Thank You FT Alphaville: Just recently FT Alphaville started a blog roll and had me alongside 21/22 excellent blogs. So this post is a Thank You! to their editors for deeming my blog worthy of their time.Much appreciated!Yaser

Managed Accounts- What You Need To Know: Recently I got an e-mail from a lawyer dealing with documenting fund of fund financing who wanted to know more about- Managed Accounts. I liked what I said, so heres a re-print w/ few exclusive additions.Under the managed accounts platform,

Central Banks- A Macro View: Capital flows into emerging markets, driven by a combination of expected stock market gains, currency appreciation, and in some countries high interest rates, have been of increasing concern for central banks. Across the emerging market countries, FX reserves surged by

What's Up With Calpine (CPNLQ)?: Fundamental Picture:WSJs Head On The Street column had a good article on Calpine, so Im going to reprint the necessary excerpts.Plugging Into CalpineCalpine recently told the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York that it is considering

Time To Buy NYSE Euronext (NYX): Fundamental PictureHigh margins and return business with secular drivers. NYXs valuation does not fully reflect strength or persistence of growth. NYSEs recent merger with Euronext will enable it to benefit from Cost synergies arising from consolidating platforms and pools of

The Monday Edition- Singapore a) Govt.'s Public Policies & Investments, b) Economy, c) Main Risks.: This week I talk about Singapores: a) Govt.s Policies & Investments (pro-business growth), b) Economy (6-year unemployment low, bankruptcies falling and growth drivers) and c) Main Risks (severe slowdown in US IT imports).Singapore, Asias second richest country after Japan with

BBH Update: Recall on May 4th I posted patterns that were developing in BBH. My intention with this post is just to show that following chart signals for channel trading work. Its always great to have such patterns as the signals are

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Original Signal - Transmitting Web 2.0